The EU’s possible response to a post-Lukashenko Belarus

Michael Emerson

Op-ed No. 23/2020

Everybody can see now that Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus is fatally wounded. His irresponsible non-management of the Covid-19, the spontaneous irruption onto the scene of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as a Joan of Arc symbol of the desire for change, and then the spectacular falsification of the presidential election on 9 August, and finally the failed attempt at brutal repression of the protests over this last week, has sealed his fate. Only we do not yet know quite when he will go, and how he will be replaced.  

But the scene is set for change, and the European Union has to work out some broad lines of how it should respond to some possible or likely scenarios. 


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