Implications of the second Nagorno Karabakh war for Armenia

Benyamin Poghosyan

Op-ed No. 34/2020

The second Nagorno Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of its territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within its 1988 borders. However, despite the clear defeat of Armenia, the conflict has not been solved. Azerbaijan was not able to invade the whole territory of Nagorno Karabakh and currently, some 3,000 square km of the territory is being controlled by Russian peacekeepers effectively creating a de facto Russian protectorate.

The defeat of Armenia will have profound economic and political implications for Armenia and will affect Armenia's foreign and defense policy.

 

Economy

 

It's too early to assess the full damage to the Armenian economy, but some trends are visible even now. According to preliminary information, during the 44 days of the war approximately 100-110,000 civilians were forced to leave their houses in Karabakh. An absolute majority of them, 90-100,000, have moved to Armenia, while up to 20,000 people moved to other settlements in Nagorno Karabakh. Since the signature of the November 9 trilateral statement, some 50,000 have returned to their homes in Karabakh, while up to 60,000 people still live in temporary homes and shelters mainly in Armenia proper. Meanwhile, serious damage to civilian infrastructure was inflicted. Gas pipelines and electricity grids are destroyed. Other seriously damaged sectors of Karabakh economy are power generation (from 36 hydropower plants only 6 are currently in the territories controlled by Russian peacekeepers), and agriculture, as up to 95,000 hectares of arable lands of Nagorno Karabakh are now under the Azerbaijani control. Armenia has to cover all the costs for providing shelter and food to refugees, as well as to pay for the reconstruction of infrastructure of the territories currently under Russian protectorate. Given the significantly deteriorated economic situation of Armenia due to the COVID – 19 even before the war, the economic outlook of Armenia seems quite grim. Since the end of the war, Armenia has faced an average of 20 percent increase in basic food prices and a 10 percent depreciation of the currency. Recently the parliament approved the budget of 2021, which envisaged 3.2 percent GDP growth, but few in Armenia believe that this goal is reachable.

 

Domestic politics

 

Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan's government has lost some of its support even before the war due to the failure of its anti-COVID policy and of its efforts to control the judicial system including the government's desire to replace the Constitutional Court judges. Government initiated the process of constitutional amendments in the Parliament in June 2020, as a result of which three judges of the Constitutional Court lost their seats. Meanwhile, opposition argued that the ruling “My step” faction of the Parliament had violated the Constitution by adopting Constitutional amendments without prior approval of the Constitutional Court. 

 

The complete defeat of Armenia in the war, as well as mounting pieces of evidence of the incompetence of government both before and during the war, has significantly weakened Pashinyan's position. Currently almost all political parties in Armenia, apart from the ruling "My Step" faction in Parliament, demand Pashinyan's immediate resignation, the formation of an interim government, and the organization of snap parliamentary elections in late 2021 or early 2022. The 17 parties that established “The homeland salvation movement” have put forward a joint candidate for interim Prime Minister, a veteran of Armenian politics Vazgen Manukyan. Manukyan was one of the leaders of the Karabakh movement in Soviet Armenia in the late 1980s. He was elected as the first Armenian Prime Minister in 1990 and assumed the position of the Minister of Defense in mid-1992, supervising successful military operations that significantly contributed to the Armenian victory in the 1992-1994 Karabakh war. The leaders of the Armenian Church, many Diaspora organizations, the leadership of the National Academy of Sciences and Yerevan State University also demand Pashinyan's resignation. Currently Pashinyan controls the "My step" faction, as well as the Police and the National Security Service. In recent days law enforcement bodies were actively clashing with the protestors in the streets, dispersing anti-Pashinyan rallies by force. Meanwhile, some circles within the "My step" faction discuss the possibility of ousting Pashinyan and electing a new interim Prime Minister from the "My step", perceiving this as an option to keep power until the snap parliamentary elections.

 

Relations with the EU and NATO

 

It seemed that the "Velvet revolution" created additional favorable conditions for the development of Armenia-EU and Armenia-NATO relations. The new government of Armenia declared its intention to accelerate the reform process in Armenia, including the fight against corruption, creation of an independent judiciary, and fostering the rule of law. Pashinyan talked about the necessity to have something bigger than CEPA with the EU but was told that the only way to deepen relations beyond CEPA was to sign an Association Agreement, including DCFTA. However, that would require leaving the Eurasian Economic Union, and Pashinyan was not ready to fully destroy relations with Russia. There was no breakthrough in Armenia-NATO relations either. Armenia's new government understood very quickly that to have a qualitative change in bilateral relations, such as the establishment of Armenia-NATO Commission or a substantial NATO-Armenia Package, Armenia would have to leave CSTO and take concrete actions to kick out the Russian military base from Gyumri. Otherwise, relations will continue within the Individual Partnership Action Plan (IPAP) framework.

 

The second Karabakh war will have long term implications for Armenia-EU and Armenia-NATO relations. Political and expert circles in Armenia viewed with surprise the absence of any meaningful NATO reaction, while one of its strongest members – Turkey, was involved in hostilities against the Nagorno Karabakh Republic and violated international humanitarian law by deploying Syrian mercenaries in the battlefield. A similar failure by the EU to sanction Turkey and Azerbaijan for their violations of international humanitarian law during the Karabakh war significantly damaged the EU’s standing in Armenia. The most common question regarding the EU being raised today in Armenia is: if the EU imposed additional sanctions on Russia for an alleged attempt of poisoning Alexander Navalny but did nothing to put pressure on Azerbaijan and Turkey while Armenian civilian infrastructure was bombed by cluster bombs, and mercenaries were deployed, how can we believe that all talk about human rights and rule of law are not mere geopolitical tools in the hand of the EU to reach its foreign policy goals?

 

Relations with Russia

 

The establishment of the de facto Russian protectorate in Nagorno Karabakh will have a serious impact on Armenia–Russia relations. While the Azerbaijani president states that conflict has been solved, he is also saying that Armenians who currently live under Russian control are citizens of Azerbaijan, and that they should embrace themselves for the "bright future" within Azerbaijan, no one perceives the situation in this way in Armenia or Nagorno Karabakh. Population living within the borders of the Russian protectorate will never accept Azerbaijani citizenship and will never agree to live under the Azerbaijani jurisdiction. As of now, one thing is clear, Nagorno Karabakh is unable to protect itself from Azerbaijan if Russian troops leave Karabakh, and given the current line of contact, Karabakh needs years if not a decade to establish new defense lines to be able to repel any potential attacks by Azerbaijan. In this context, the presence of Russian peacekeepers is an absolute necessity if Armenia and Karabakh do not want to see the entire Armenian population of Karabakh forced to leave its lands. Of course, this situation provides significant leverage for Russia to influence Armenian foreign and domestic policy. Actually, after November 10 trilateral statement Armenia is much more dependent on Russia than at any time after gaining independence in September 1991. This means that Armenia has few if any opportunities to continue any resemblance of balanced or multi-vector foreign policy, which Yerevan for better or worse sought to pursue in the last 20-25 years. This does not mean that Armenia will cancel its Comprehensive and Enhanced Partnership Agreement with the EU or will stop its cooperation with NATO within Individual Partnership Actions Plans. But it means that all significant domestic and foreign policy decisions in Armenia will not be adopted without the tacit approval of the Kremlin.

 

Comments ()

  1. SEO 28 february 2023, 21:20 # 0
    You know your projects stand out of the herd. There is something special about them. It seems to me all of them are really brilliant! Flights in pakistan
    1. seo 28 march 2023, 18:57 # 0
      i read a lot of stuff and i found that the way of writing to clearifing that exactly want to say was very good so i am impressed and ilike to come again in future… Newborn Photography Calgary
      1. کلاه کاسکت 31 march 2023, 14:49 # 0
        Best motorcycle helmet shop
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت

        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت

        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        کلاه کاسکت
        1. Batool Shaikh 22 april 2023, 21:12 # 0
          Wonderful article, thanks for putting this together! This is obviously one great post. Thanks for the valuable information and insights you have so provided here. blog writing services
          1. Batool Shaikh 23 april 2023, 14:03 # 0
            i read a lot of stuff and i found that the way of writing to clearifing that exactly want to say was very good so i am impressed and ilike to come again in future… buy CISSP Certified Information Systems Security Professional certification
            1. Batool Shaikh 07 may 2023, 16:20 # 0
              i read a lot of stuff and i found that the way of writing to clearifing that exactly want to say was very good so i am impressed and ilike to come again in future… big data
              1. aman 08 may 2023, 22:28 # 0
                On this page you can read my interests, write something special.
                SKYWARD FBISD
                1. Batool Shaikh 11 may 2023, 12:40 # 0
                  Thank you for taking the time to publish this information very useful! cloud developer
                  1. Batool Shaikh 13 may 2023, 16:19 # 0
                    This is a great inspiring article.I am pretty much pleased with your good work.You put really very helpful information. Keep it up. Keep blogging. Looking to reading your next post. llc names ideas
                    1. Batool Shaikh 15 may 2023, 18:44 # 0
                      Great article Lot's of information to Read...Great Man Keep Posting and update to People..Thanks registered agent florida
                      1. Batool Shaikh 15 may 2023, 20:24 # 0
                        Wow what a Great Information about World Day its very nice informative post. thanks for the post. california registered agent services
                        1. Batool Shaikh 15 may 2023, 21:02 # 0
                          It was wondering if I could use this write-up on my other website, I will link it back to your website though.Great Thanks. nevada registered agents
                          1. Batool Shaikh 15 may 2023, 22:59 # 0
                            Thank you very much for the sharing! COOL… registered agent georgia
                            1. Batool Shaikh 27 may 2023, 00:05 # 0
                              Yes i am totally agreed with this article and i just want say that this article is very nice and very informative article.I will make sure to be reading your blog more. You made a good point but I can't help but wonder, what about the other side? !!!!!!THANKS!!! SJHM
                              1. Aspire Bedding 29 may 2023, 16:44 # 0
                                Get the best comforter price in Pakistan at Aspire Bedding. Find high-quality bedding at an affordable rate for a comfortable sleep experience.
                                1. Mannat Clothing 30 may 2023, 15:01 # 0
                                  Discover the enchanting world of Mannat Clothing's dress design, where elegance meets fashion. Explore their exquisite collection of women's dresses, meticulously crafted to elevate your style and make a lasting impression.
                                  1. Panache Apparel 30 may 2023, 16:09 # 0
                                    Embrace elegance with Panache Apparel, the renowned ladies' clothes brand in Pakistan. Experience the epitome of style through their meticulously crafted designs, tailored to perfection for the contemporary woman.
                                    1. Qhaaf Bedding 30 may 2023, 19:00 # 0
                                      With its unparalleled quality and unique design, Qhaaf Bedding truly distinguishes itself from other bed sheets brands. Enhance your bedroom ambiance by indulging in Qhaaf's exquisite bedding collections.
                                      1. Batool Shaikh 25 june 2023, 21:19 # 0
                                        Thanks for sharing nice information with us. i like your post and all you share with us is uptodate and quite informative, i would like to bookmark the page so i can come here again to read you, as you have done a wonderful job. pregnancy photoshoot
                                        1. Shahtaj Qaiser 12 july 2023, 15:03 # 0
                                          Make your Walima ceremony unforgettable with our latest walima bridal dress in Pakistan. Our extensive selection of dresses offers a variety of colors and styles, ensuring that you'll find the perfect dress to reflect your unique personality and style. Shop now!
                                          1. Jazmin 12 july 2023, 16:35 # 0
                                            With a range of colors and styles to choose from, you're sure to find the perfect Chiffon Dresses for any occasion at Jazmin Clothing. Check the variety of chiffon dresses online at Jazminpk. Order your favorite dresses online today.
                                            1. ECS 13 july 2023, 12:42 # 0
                                              Find the prettiest scarf for girls online at ECS. Explore the latest collection of girls' scarfs online. Order your favorite scarf online at affordable prices across Pakistan.
                                              1. Mohagni 13 july 2023, 12:55 # 0
                                                Discover the dignity and sophistication of Mohagni, with a leading party dress and a unique blend of traditional and modern styles. We provide a large number of party dresses online in Pakistan. Buy your favorite dress and feel precious and attractive.
                                                1. Adoro 17 july 2023, 12:01 # 0
                                                  Step into style with our collection of ladies shoes. Our stunning range of shoes offers all the latest styles in stunning colors and designs, perfect for any occasion. Whether you're looking for a classic pump or a daring stiletto, we have the perfect pair for you. Enjoy comfortable walking and maximum support with our super comfortable sole and breathable material. Shop now and stand out from the crowd!
                                                  1. Adoro 17 july 2023, 23:30 # 0
                                                    Step up your style game with stylish shoes that will make you look amazing! Crafted with quality materials and modern designs, these shoes are perfect for any occasion. Whether you're dressing up for a night out or just want to stay comfortable on your daily commute, stylish shoes will bring the right amount of flair to your ensemble. Make heads turn and feel confident walking confidently with stylish shoes!
                                                    1. Kafas Tourism 30 october 2023, 12:17 # 0
                                                      KafasTourism offers hassle-free Dubai visit visa packages from Pakistan. Make your dream trip a reality with our expert services, ensuring a smooth journey to this dynamic city.
                                                      1. esabong events 04 november 2023, 04:46 # 0
                                                        We have a site for sports games. You must be interested. online sabong international