Ukraine stuck with challenges: what are the chances for economic recovery?

Oleksandra Betliy

Op-ed No. 31/2020

2020 is a year of full-scale challenges for Ukraine, from the political and economic to the institutional and constitutional. The year is not over yet and the risks for the year-end remain high. They are primarily related to the high fiscal gap that now confronts the government and possible tighter quarantine measures (or even lockdown), which would hamper economic development. As a result, the outlook for Ukraine is uncertain even though most forecasts envisage economic growth of about 4% in 2021.

 

The year 2020 started with declining industrial output primarily due to weaker external demand, while fiscal revenues were lower than planned because the stronger than expected hryvnia resulted in under-execution of VAT revenues on imports. The IMF program was on hold as the Parliament was stuck in a long procedure for approving the Land Law, with the need to consider 4000 proposals by the MPs to amend the Draft Law, and the debates on amendments to the Banking Law were still on-going. All this interacted with the change in the Cabinet of Ministers in the first days of March.

 

Already the first COVID-19 case had been registered, and in mid-March the Government introduced the lockdown. This was a hard hit for the economy and resulted in real GDP declining by 11.4% in the second quarter of 2020. The full-scale lockdown lasted until mid-May, after which it was gradually softened. To mitigate the negative impact of the lockdown the Government introduced partial unemployment payments, cash benefits for self-employed individuals with children, and payments to elderly pensioners. It also conducted earlier than initially planned the indexation of pensions. Credit vacations were made possible, and SMEs received access to cheaper credits subsidized by the government.

 

At the end of July quarantine measures were introduced with green, yellow, orange, and red regional zones. However, business quarantine measures were rather soft even in red quarantine zones due to the risks of social tensions and opposition from local authorities. Overall, most businesses started working almost as usual. Retail trade increased against the background of rather strong consumption, which was also supported by the minimum wage increase from UAH 4723 to UAH 5000 in September 2020. State financing of infrastructural projects, primarily of roads construction and maintenance, also contributed to economic recovery with financing from the government’s COVID-19 Fund. As a result, most sectors showed improvements in their performance. However, agricultural output declined due to lower harvests, and passenger transportation remained depressed because of restrictions on travel. Consumer price inflation was below than the lower bound of the inflation target, partially due to the increased credibility of the central bank, which contained inflationary expectations. The current account balance turned positive due to a narrowed trade deficit and an improved surplus of trade in services. In particular, external demand for food and metallurgical product exports remained strong, while imports declined due to lower energy prices, smaller domestic demand, and the drop in tourism. 

 

In November 2020, the risks of another lockdown rose again due to the surge in COVID-19 incidence and lack of adequate capacities of the health system. If introduced it would result in another decline in economic activity, after it started to recover in summer, and real GDP might then drop by more than currently expected 5.5-6.0% for the year 2020 as a whole. The impact of the lockdown might be aggravated by the lack of adequate government mitigation measures. As a result, on 12 November the government changed the quarantine measures, defining all of Ukraine as an orange zone, and introduced weekend lockdown with red zone restrictions. 

 

The government has also promised to renew some measures for business support, which were used in spring, which might be a challenging task. In particular, the government currently faces a large fiscal gap due to high financing needs against the background of limited access to domestic and external capital markets. Considering possible savings on the expenditure side and likely increases in fiscal revenues, the fiscal gap is estimated at about USD 3.5-4.0 bn. The fiscal deficit was expected to be covered primarily by concessional lending, including the second tranche of loan under the IMF program.

 

However, the IMF program is currently on hold as the government has not yet fulfilled several structural benchmarks required for the next tranche. Moreover, the draft State Budget Law for 2021, which was voted in the first reading by the Parliament, does not reflect Ukraine’s commitments under the IMF program. Ukraine also suffers a constitutional crisis, as the Constitutional Court decisions had somewhat reversed anti-corruption reforms, undermining achievement of essential structural reforms.

 

To ensure access to financing there is an urge for MPs to approve laws required under the IMF program (namely, amendments to the Laws on High Council of Justice, Deposit Guarantee Fund, and Banking Law) as well as resolve the constitutional crisis and restore anti-corruption legislation. This is a challenging task as members of the presidential party ‘Servants of People’ is rather fragmented at the moment. 

 

IMF engagement is important not only for the closing the fiscal gap in 2020 but will be even more critical for securing financing needs (at about 15% of GDP) in 2021. It should also open the floor for other concessional lending, including the macro-financial assistance from the EU and the World Bank. Besides, the active IMF program improves conditions for government borrowings on domestic and external markets to finance on time and in full its liabilities. 

 

The forecasts of the Cabinet of Ministers and the central bank, as well as of key Ukrainian and foreign experts, base their economic forecasts for 2021 on the assumption of a continued IMF program. There is a consensus among forecasters that real GDP should grow by about 4% next year (with a somewhat more pessimistic IMF forecast of 3%). The growth is assumed to be due to stronger private final consumption supported by two planned hikes in the minimum wage to UAH 6,000 in January and UAH 6,500 in July, and a further increase in pensions. At the same time, this would contribute to inflation, which is expected to temporarily exceed the central bank’s inflation target (the central bank forecasting consumer prices to accelerate to 6.5% in 2021). The minimum wage increases will somewhat limit private investments. Still, the government plans to keep a strong level of infrastructural spending, with further focus on road construction, which would support economic activity. The current account balance is expected to return to deficit due to broadened trade deficit as the growth of imports is expected to outpace exports. Moreover, the expected access to vaccination should result in higher expenditures on tourism.

 

Overall, Ukraine’s economic recovery depends on political continuity in the reform implementation, credibility of the central bank, and the capacity of the government to resolve the constitutional crisis. This would ensure the IMF’s support and, thus, open access to other concessional lending and improve conditions for state borrowings. Judicial reform, which is one of the structural benchmarks of the IMF program, should result in a better investment climate and inflow of foreign direct investment required for the acceleration of economic growth in the longer run.

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                                                                                                                                Le dermatologue marrakech du docteur dermatologue marrakech vous propose un large éventail de soins pour améliorer la santé et l'esthétique de votre peau. Que vous souhaitiez consulter un cabinet de dermatologue à marrakech pour unrendez-vous dermatologue ou pour un nettoyage de peau dermatologique, nous sommes à votre disposition. Notre cabinet dermatologie marrakech est également spécialisé dans la dermatologie esthétique à marrakech , avec des traitements tels que l'épilation laser dermatologue et le détatouage
                                                                                                                                Si vous avez besoin de soins plus spécifiques, notredermatologue pédiatrique peut prendre en charge les enfants, tandis que notre dermatologue cheveux est un dermatologue spécialiste cheveux reconnu pour traiter les problèmes capillaires, y compris lachute des cheveux chez la femme. De plus, nous offrons des soins de dermatologue sans rendez-vous pour certaines urgences, comme letraitement des verrues, des taches solaires, ou encore des kystes dermatologiques.
                                                                                                                                1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:42 # 0
                                                                                                                                  En tant que société de construction, nous proposons des solutions adaptées aux besoins de nos clients, que ce soit pour des infrastructures, des bâtiments résidentiels ou des locaux professionnels. Notre entreprise de la construction met à votre disposition un savoir-faire éprouvé pour assurer la réussite de vos projets.
                                                                                                                                  Nos équipes interviennent dans plusieurs villes, notamment pour des projets de construction à Marrakech et de construction au Maroc. Nous prenons en charge l’intégralité des travaux de construction, de la conception à la réalisation, en respectant les normes de sécurité et les exigences environnementales.
                                                                                                                                  1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:42 # 0
                                                                                                                                    Plongez dans une aventure unique avec nos nombreuses activités en montagne, incluant la randonnée à Aït Bouguemez. Vivez un séjour nature au Maroc et profitez d’un cadre exceptionnel propice à la détente et à la découverte.
                                                                                                                                    Adazen Lodge s’inscrit dans une démarche de tourisme durable au Maroc, favorisant un mode de vie respectueux de l’environnement. Nos chambres vous offrent un hébergement à Aït Bouguemez alliant confort et immersion dans la culture berbère authentique.
                                                                                                                                    Que vous souhaitiez un lodge de luxe au Maroc ou une maison d'hôtes à Aït Bouguemez, notre établissement vous garantit un séjour authentique dans le Haut Atlas. Vivez une expérience rurale au Maroc et partez à la découverte de la vallée d’Aït Bouguemez.
                                                                                                                                      1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:42 # 0
                                                                                                                                        En tant qu'agence de voyage à Marrakech, notre mission est de fournir des voyages exceptionnels qui captivent l'esprit et élargissent les horizons. Notre statut de Voyage Solidaire au Maroc renforce notre engagement envers la qualité et la satisfaction de nos voyageurs.
                                                                                                                                        Chez Atlas Outdoor, Randonnée au Maroc chaque lien ci-dessous est une invitation à une aventure unique vacances de luxe au Maroc
                                                                                                                                        1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:43 # 0
                                                                                                                                          s a leading DMC in Morocco,,we specialize in MICE travel,corporate events, and team-building activities. We are also committed to solidarity travel and responsible tourism through our
                                                                                                                                          Atlas Outdoor is a family owned incoming DMC Morocco, to DMC Marrakech ,
                                                                                                                                          1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:45 # 0
                                                                                                                                            Envie de découvrir les paysages spectaculaires du Haut Atlas marocain tout en vivant une expérience authentique et solidaire? Partez à la rencontre des villages de montagne en séjournant dans des établissements de charme comme imlil hotel, une adresse idéale pour explorer la vallée. À proximité, ksar shama vous accueille avec une vue imprenable sur les montagnes. Si vous cherchez une atmosphère plus locale, optez pour une auberge imlil ou un hotel a imlil pour un séjour authentique en altitude.
                                                                                                                                            Pour vos réservation hôtel maroc, n’oubliez pas de consulter les offres dans les zones préservées du marrakech atlas. La région de ouirgane marrakech séduit de plus en plus de voyageurs à la recherche de nature, de calme et de découvertes culturelles. Vous y trouverez de nombreuses options comme un hotel ouirgane ou encore l’authentique ksar shama ouirgane, également connu sous le nom de ksar shama marrakech.Que vous choisissiez une auberge ouirgane ou une auberge imlil prix abordable, vous serez toujours accueilli avec chaleur. Des adresses telles que dar shama marrakech ou un <a href=«www.ksarsha
                                                                                                                                            1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:45 # 0
                                                                                                                                              A Humanitarian Association in MoroccoAtlas Outdoor Foundation is ahumanitarian association in Moroccodedicated to sustainable development and supporting local communities.Founded in 2024 by the team at Atlas Outdoor, aresponsible tourism agency,it works to create a positive social and environmental impact.
                                                                                                                                              Based in Marrakech,the association carries outsolidarity actions in the High Atlas and Southern Morocco, collaborating with
                                                                                                                                              1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:45 # 0
                                                                                                                                                Atlas Outdoor Foundation est une association humanitaire au Maroc dédiée au développement durablesoutien des communautés locales.
                                                                                                                                                Fondée en 2024 par l’équipe d’Atlas Outdoor, une agence de tourisme responsable elle œuvre pour un impact social et environnemental positif.
                                                                                                                                                1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:45 # 0
                                                                                                                                                  Découvrez les richesses culturelles du Maroc grâce à my travel tours morocco nos itinéraires flexibles et personnalisés. Adaptez la durée, les dates et les catégories d'hébergement selon vos besoins.
                                                                                                                                                  1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:46 # 0
                                                                                                                                                    Découvrez notre gamme variée de produits artisanaux marocains. Cliquez sur les liens ci-dessous pour en savoir plus.Cement tiles Morocco — Parcourez notre collection de carreaux de ciment, idéaux pour un design unique et durable.Moroccan zellige
                                                                                                                                                    1. itlabs 09 july 2025, 11:46 # 0
                                                                                                                                                      Pour votre marriage, HAJAR FLEURS sont les meilleurs dans le domaine de la Livraison de fleurs, meilleur fleuriste au Maroc, a Marrakech, Casablanca, Rabat, Tanger...pour un joli bouquet de fleurs Marrakech et bouquet de fleurs Maroc hajar fleurs fleuriste marrakech maroc est considéré comme le meilleur fleuriste a Marrakech ,pour cette raison n'hesitez pas à contacter fleuriste marrakech pour vous livrer un bouquet de rêve fleursite marrakech
                                                                                                                                                      1. Metric Unit Converter 15 july 2025, 16:55 # 0
                                                                                                                                                        Great Info. Unit conversion is referred to differently across languages, reflecting each culture's linguistic structure. Unit Converter Citizen Post Word Search Game Spin The Wheel Jigsaw Puzzle Local Observer Tic Tac Toe Ticking With Purpose Metro Daily Reporter Metric Conversion In French, it’s known as "conversion d’unités", "Conversão de unidades" in Portuguese while German speakers use "Einheitenumrechnung". In Arabic, the term "تحويل الوحدات" is commonly used. Scandinavian countries have similar-sounding words, with "Enhetskonvertering" in Norwegian, "enhedsomregning" in Danish and "enhetsomvandling" in Swedish. The Japanese call it "単位変換" (tan’i henkan), and Koreans refer to it as “단위 변환”. Slavic languages like Czech and Slovak use "převod jednotek" and "prevod jednotiek" respectively. In Italian and Spanish, it becomes "conversione delle unità" and "conversión de unidades", maintaining a Latin root. Finnish uses the concise "yksikkömuunnos", while Dutch simplifies it as "eenheden omrekenen". Despite the variation in terminology, the concept remains universally essential for communication, science, and engineering across borders. temperature conversion weight-and-mass conversion length conversion volume conversion area conversion time conversion لغز عجلة الحظ hádanka „roztoč kolo“ spin-hjulet puslespil draai het wiel-puzzel pyöräytä pyörää -pulma énigme de la roue Drehe-das-Rad-Rätsel enigma della ruota ホイールを回すパズル 돌림판 퍼즐 snurr hjulet-gåte quebra-cabeça da roleta rompecabezas de la ruleta snurra hjulet-pussel hádanka „roztoč koleso“ أحجية الصور المقطوعة puzzle puslespil legpuzzel palapeli puzzle Puzzle puzzle ジグソーパズル 조각 퍼즐 puslespill quebra-cabeça rompecabezas pussel puzzle alebo skladačka Jigsaw Puzzle Spin the Wheel Word Search animals birds books celebrities cities and places countries educational food and drink general geography health and safety history kids movies music religious science seasonal sports synonyms travel tv shows vocabulary adult animals birds arts crafts board games chance fortune entertainment food drink fun comedy games party holidays music nature other science sports tarot card tools travel world video games yes or no us states nfl teams alphabet wheel of fortune colors number pokemon love tarot reading nhl teams nrl teams rugby teams animals architecture arts countries food geography holidays home children nature people science sports transport
                                                                                                                                                        1. Blogger 15 july 2025, 16:57 # 0
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                                                                                                                                                          1. virginia dui lawyer 16 july 2025, 11:23 # 0
                                                                                                                                                            A qualified DUI lawyer will start by reviewing the details of your arrest to determine whether your rights were violated at any point. This could include examining the legality of the traffic stop, virginia dui lawyerthe accuracy of the breath or blood test, and whether law enforcement followed proper procedures. If there are issues with the evidence or the way it was obtained, your lawyer may be able to challenge its admissibility in court, which could strengthen your defense or even lead to a dismissal.