The Impressive EU-Ukraine Summits – Alongside the Inadequate Enlargement Methodology
The EU-Ukraine Summit The Kyiv Summit on 2-3 February 2023 was impressive, bringing Presidents Michel and Von der Leyen, plus half of the college of the Commission…
Putin enters the Hitler category
Until now Hitler has been branded as the most extreme incarnation of evil, to the point that he has remained in the history books only, and not heard of in comparisons with any other living personality. That now changes with Putin.
Putin’s evil war
Putin’s comprehensive invasion of Ukraine across its north, east and south borders and inland rocket attacks started early in the morning of Thursday 24 February 2022. His speech to justify the invasion invoked the objectives of demilitarization…
The EU and the Trio in the light of the Russian threats
The current Russian threat to invade Ukraine, aimed also at intimidating Georgia, creates a new political context for the EU to consider how to support more strongly all three Trio partners.
And now Kazakhstan... in the wider European competition of democracy vs autocracy
Kazakhstan is Central Asia rather than Europe, but Putin has made it part of the European political equation by instrumentalising it as a key element of the Eurasian Economic Union, intended to counter the expansion of European Union’s…
Russia at the gates, again: what do Ukrainians think?
For more than a month attention of the Western expert and political establishment is turned towards the border between Ukraine and Russia in close proximity to which the latter amasses its troops. The recent online…
Electric cars in Ukraine: new market – new challenges
Electric transport is an essential component of the EU Green Deal. Ukrainian consumers also demonstrate more and more interest in electric cars. With fiscal incentives in place, electric car ownership in Ukraine has been growing fast…
Moldova’s gas troubles: between Russian gas dominance and EU financial support
After many years of stable supply of Russian gas to Moldova, the gas problem again turns into a bitter dispute between Moldova and the Russian state gas giant, Gazprom. The old gas contract expires in October, after being renewed for a month in September…
Moldova after the snap elections: The historical victory of the pro-EU forces
The early elections are over and its main beneficiary became the Action and Solidarity Party, which obtained 52.7% of the votes (63 out of 101 seats). It is correct to admit that President Maia Sandu's contribution was instrumental…
Moldova’s early elections: any chance for a “yellow revolution”?
After July 11, 2021, Moldova will look different politically, if the reformist political parties win a comfortable majority (51 out of 101 seats). There are 23 participating parties in these elections, which is one of the most important…
The Georgian Crisis and its EU-Mediated Resolution
This op-ed is the updated version of ‘The Georgian Crisis and its Lessons’, given the exceptional importance of the EU-mediated resolution of the crisis in recent days. (No 10/2021
The Georgian Crisis and its Lessons
The Georgian political crisis, that started after the October 2020 parliamentary elections with all the opposition parties that cleared the one percent threshold refusing to accept the results, is effectively pronounced over. The ruling…
Early elections in Moldova: why, when and how?
A glimpse of hope that Moldova can exit the ongoing political crisis emerged out of the recent decision of the Constitutional Court that validated the early elections. On 15 April, the majority of the constitutional judges ruled that…
Lots of Hope and Little Information around the Authorized Economic Operators in Ukraine
Ukrainian exporting and importing businesses have recently got the much-awaited opportunity to register as Authorized Economic Operators – or AEOs. This status will make them trusted companies in the country's Customs Office's eyes and…
Results of Ukraine's 2015 Wood Moratorium: Trade Protectionism vs Forest Protection
In December 2020, the Arbitration Panel presented its ruling on the Ukrainian ban on exports of all unprocessed wood.…
Building a New Momentum for European integration of the Balkan and Eastern European Associated States
Speaking notes for the joint European Parliament-CEPS webinar, 4 March 2021.You can also access the…
EU comes to the rescue of Georgia in its struggle for democracy
Once a best-performing country in the Eastern Partnership (EaP), Georgia has witnessed democratic backsliding and high political tensions since the 2018 presidential elections. The country did not deliver needed judicial reforms and…
Georgia: A Change of Prime Minister amid a Crisis
Georgia is going to have the fifth change of prime minister since the Georgian Dream (GD) came to power in 2012. Irakli Garibashvili, who used to hold this position in 2013-15, is coming back.
New perspectives for EU-Ukraine relations in the pipeline?
The official records of annual meetings of the EU-Ukraine Association Council, the last one having been held on 11 February, are normally less than exciting reading, with lengthy accounts of work in progress and many well-worn political…
Moldova’s president engages with pro-EU neighbours, amid ongoing domestic instability
Moldova’s foreign policy under the new President Maia Sandu slowly renews its shape. In less than a month, Sandu refreshes contacts with the country’s two neighbours – Romania and Ukraine. Her style of foreign policy is energetic and…
Is Ivanishvili’s “Second Leaving” for Real?
On January 11th, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder and leader of the Georgian Dream, Georgia’s ruling party since 2012, unexpectedly announced, in a lengthy letter, that he was leaving politics for good. This…
Moldova’s forthcoming elections in 2021 and the new President Maia Sandu’s tough agenda
In a surprising move, the government led by the Prime Minister Ion Chicu decided to resign by the end of this year, on December 23rd. The announcement came a few hours before the parliamentary session at which the opposition planned…
Implications of the second Nagorno Karabakh war for Armenia
The second Nagorno Karabakh war ended with Armenia's capitulation. The unrecognized Nagorno Karabakh Republic lost approximately 75 percent of its territories, including parts of the former Nagorno Karabakh Autonomous Region within…
The second war over Nagorno-Karabakh, viewed from Baku
The second major war between Azerbaijan and Armenia in Nagorno-Karabakh started on 27 September 2020. Recourse to a military solution of the conflict was no surprise to society in Azerbaijan, which considered the 28-year peace talks…
Results of the local elections in Ukraine: A new political landscape on the ground?
The local elections in Ukraine that started on October 25 are not officially over yet. While the majority of mayors and local councils were sworn in, the Central Election Commission is still finalising the results in some districts.…
Ukraine stuck with challenges: what are the chances for economic recovery?
2020 is a year of full-scale challenges for Ukraine, from the political and economic to the institutional and constitutional. The year is not over yet and the risks for the year-end remain high. They are primarily related to the high…
Moldovan presidential elections: Sandu wins the run-off, while Dodon faces a “checkmate“
The outcome of the second round of the presidential election on Sunday 14 November saw the victory of Maia Sandu as the 6th president of Moldova, who is also the first female president of the country.
The ruling of the (Un)Constitutional Court of Ukraine: is there a way out?
On October 27 2020, the Constitutional Court of Ukraine (CCU) adopted decision 13-p/2020 on the unconstitutionality…
Elections amid the Surge of the Pandemic
What’s at stake? In the October 31st parliamentary elections Georgia will decide whether it keeps the government of the…
“Inevitable” geopolitical elections in Moldova – the Europeans bet on opposition, Russia favours the incumbent
The geopolitical saga of the Moldovan presidential elections has commenced. Before the voting day on November 1st, 2020, both political voices from the EU and Russia have picked…
Three ways the October local elections are unique for Ukraine
The local elections on Sunday, October 25 in Ukraine stand out for several reasons. First, the voting occurs during the Covid-19 epidemics,…
The new political season in Ukraine: with a rollback of reforms?
Slightly more than a year has passed since the President Volodymyr Zelensky consolidated…
Why the EU should now consolidate its front with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine
With half of the six Eastern Partnership states now in flames, either metaphorically in the case of Belarus or literally with war between Armenia and Azerbaijan, the EU’s diplomacy seems to be predominantly preoccupied with what realistically…
The EU’s possible response to a post-Lukashenko Belarus
Everybody can see now that Lukashenko’s regime in Belarus is fatally wounded. His irresponsible non-management of the Covid-19, the spontaneous irruption onto the scene of Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya as a Joan of Arc symbol of the desire…
The Advent of Biopolitics: Repercussion for the EU, Russia, and Eastern Partnership Countries
The COVID-19 had significantly changed the structure of world politics by shifting its core from issues of geopolitics to what in the academic literature for quite some time has been known as global biopolitics. As a concept,…
Europe and Dignity: How Ukraine Can Help Rethink Europe’s Core Value
Although Ukraine still remains beyond EU doors, there is one thing that unites this Eastern European country with the European Union. It is a word “dignity”. Dignity is a key word for EU…
Is the E40 river route connecting the Baltic and Black Seas a good idea?
The idea to connect the Baltic and Black Seas through waterways reviving the route existing in the Soviet times was first suggested in 1996 and supported by the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE). In 2009, Ukraine…
COVID-19 pandemic and its immediate impact on the Ukrainian economy
The Covid-19 pandemic has already inflicted severe damage on the Ukrainian economy despite relatively mild public health implications so far. The number of new Covid-19 cases seems to have stabilized over the last few weeks, and the…
Culture: Yet Another Omission from the EU's Thoughts on the Future of the Eastern Partnership
The recent Joint Communication of March 2020 outlined how cooperation with the EU’s Eastern partners may be envisaged after 2020, which in May was followed by Council Conclusions. In contrast to the EU’s May 2018 Joint Communication…
European Union Competition Policy during and beyond the Corona Crisis: Key Takeaways for Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia
The COVID-19 outbreak is a dire public health emergency. At the same time, the economic impact of the corona crisis cannot be overlooked. To temper the economic turmoil, the European Union (EU) has swiftly adapted its competition framework…
A post-Coronavirus Narrative for the Eastern Partnership
The coronavirus crisis, and the ‘Green Deal’ and digital agendas that will be resumed as soon as the pandemic subsides, are transformational shocks to the EU and its relations with its close neighbours. These shocks could become the…
The risks of Russia’s “geopolitical” credit to Moldova
In the eve of Easter celebration (17 April), the Moldovan President Igor Dodon rushed to display on one of his social media accounts the earlier unseen text of the agreement with Russia for a €200 million loan. Nobody else than the…
The EU’s existential crisis, averted with compromise, for today
Since my contribution to the paper on 8 April ended with the EU facing a huge existential choice, to be resolved the following day,…
EU’s anti-Covid-19 support for Eastern neighbors – on the basis of what criteria?
As part of its global response to the Covid-19 crisis, the EU’s has announced a package…
Which spreads faster in the EU’s neighbourhood: Coronavirus or disinformation?
The European External Action Service (EEAS), in its special reports on disinformation around Coronavirus has revealed the unprecedented volumes of disinformation hitting the EU’s neighbourhood. The EEAS reports rely on the EUvsDisinfo…
The Covid-19 Shock to the Global and European Economy
I am old enough to recall quite a few global macroeconomic shocks. The first was when Nixon suspended the gold convertibility of the dollar in 1971. Next came the big oil shocks of 1973 and again in 1979. Then the fall of the Berlin…
Judicial reform in Ukraine: stalled, damaged and abandoned
President Zelensky and his party got unprecedented support from the people in the last year’s elections. They convinced many people with promises to dismiss the old corrupt judiciary, and imprison those who deserve it as early as “spring…
The COVID-19 test for Ukraine
The Ukrainian authorities started to react to COVID-19 pandemic relatively late due to the internal political crisis resulting in Prime Minister Honcharuk’s resignation on the…
On the Effects of the Pandemic – between European Solidarity and the Eastern Neighbourhood's Resilience
EU responses to coronavirus require effective engagement with Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia - by broadening political and sectoral communication, facilitating access to European…
The end of the honeymoon for Ukraine’s Zelensky
While the whole world is fighting the global Coronavirus pandemic, Ukraine is also experiencing a political shake up. On 4 March the Parliament dismissed Prime Minister Oleksiy Honcharuk and his government after just six months in office without objective…
How Ukraine is to handle Intellectual Property Rights in its Customs procedure
Protection of intellectual property right s (IPR) is one of the most pressing issues in the Ukrainian economy, which significantly influences a country's relations with its international partners. The Association Agreement…
Does Moldova remain pro-EU, in Russia’s shadow?
The path towards European integration in Eastern Europe moves away from the standardized binary “black-and-white” conventional geopolitical thinking. According to this view, advocating friendship with Russia does not mean converting…
The international democratic community, watching Georgia, aghast at Bidzina Ivanishvili's behaviour
Many Georgia observers agree that Bidzina Ivanishvili’s government and ruling party Georgian Dream (GD) has never been under such intense criticism from the International democratic community as now. Maybe, none of its predecessors…
Corruption Perception Index 2019: thinking about Ukraine
According to the new Corruption Perceptions Index-2019 published by Transparency International, Ukraine scored 30 points out of 100. It means that Ukraine has gone back to the level of 2017 and…
Overview of FDI trends in Georgia before and after the DCFTA
Since September 2014 the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) entered into force between the EU and Georgia. Georgia is gradually implementing EU requirements in various areas identified in the agreement that brings Georgian regulations…
Trade geography of Ukraine in 2019: declining Russia, rising China, slowing EU
The year 2019 witnessed new developments in the geography of Ukraine’s trade in goods. Although the official annual statistics have not been released yet, trends have been very clear already, and they are not fully in line with prior…
Unintended consequences of the Russia-Ukraine gas deal: a collateral benefit for Moldova
The new gas deal between Ukraine and Russia (Euroactiv, 20 December 2019),…
The art of compromise: Ukraine and Russia agree on a gas transit deal
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine advance an EU+3 proposition
On 5 December in the margins of an OSCE ministerial meeting in Bratislava, the three foreign ministers of Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine handed to the new EU High Representative for Foreign and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, an important Joint Statement. The…
100 days of Ukraine’s new government: many achievements but some disturbing signs
The new Ukrainian Parliament and the Government celebrate their first 100 days in power, after the summer early parliamentary elections brought overwhelming victory to the “Servants of People” party. For…
Continuing tension in Georgia over contested electoral systems
Since June, the center of Georgian politics has moved to the streets and no way back is in sight yet. Everything started on June 20th, when a Russian communist MP Sergei Gavrilov was seen in the chair of the…
The new EU leadership’s opportunity for an early win in Eastern Europe
If the new High Representative Josep Borrell and new Commissioner for the neighbourhood Olivér Várhelyi are wondering where to start, they would do well to consider what they might do next with Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine. This summer, the Commission…
Profiling the new Socialist-anchored government in Moldova
The no-confidence vote against the pro-EU government, under Prime Minister Maia Sandu, has now solidified the concentration of power in the hands of the Socialists Party. As a result, Moldova…
Moldova’s return to a pro-Russian government
The political struggle over the rule of law reforms is returning Moldova back to the status quo of 10 years ago, one of an oscillating East-West model of political leadership. Last week’s effective vote of no-confidence against the reform-keen…
Bill #1008: A step towards the reform of the judiciary in Ukraine or another attempt at its capture?
On 16th of October, the Parliament adopted a long-anticipated draft law #1008 “On amendments to certain laws of Ukraine on judicial governance bodies”. To a large extent, the draft law was a reaction to…
Can Ukraine and Russia make things work this time?
The next steps towards reconciliation are going to be extremely difficult and painful for a number of reasons. German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier probably doesn’t know whether to laugh or cry at the fact that his name has suddenly…
Who is aiding Ukraine?
The now famous phone call between President Trump and President Zelensky released to the public in September attracted most attention around the Biden affair and possible links to US military assistance. Less noticed were Trump’s remarks that Europe…
EU road transport quotas are limiting trade expansion with Ukraine
Over the last years, Ukraine has intensified its trade links with the EU driven by both the positive stimulus provided by the Association Agreement and a negative stimulus, namely the need to replace lost trade links with Russia. Between 2013 and 2018,…
EU-Georgia DCFTA: Results after 5 years and perspectives
The Agreement between the EU and Georgia for the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA) started to be applied (provisionally) five year ago in September 2014. This has represented a real opportunity for Georgia for to…
Unblocking reforms in Moldova: constraints and hazards
The urgency of promised reforms pressurizes the new Moldovan government to deliver or to face criticism from all sides. Three months have passed since the Socialists and ACUM bloc took the power on June 15 (Government…
Georgia has a new prime minister again: What does this mean?
After just a year and two months serving as Georgia’s prime minister, Mamuka Bakhtadze resigned. He explained his decision by saying that he had accomplished everything he planned to do, whatever that was. He was replaced by Giorgi Gakharia, the former…
The strategic potential of Ukraine’s Zelenskyy
Ukraine has wasted many years in episodes of deeply flawed government under its post-Soviet regimes, where the default condition was one of corrupt oligarchy. The results have been disastrous. In 1990, Ukraine’s income level was on a par with that…
Russia’s pragmatic game in a friendlier Moldova
The democratic space in Moldova is slowly recovering. However, it is uncertain if the ruling coalition, run by the Socialists and the ACUM bloc, is capable to preserve geopolitical neutrality and instill resilience in the institutions against the oligarchic…
New Russian bans on imports from Ukraine
Ukraine’s dependence on the market for exports to Russia has been declining drastically since 2011 (Figure 1). Until then Ukraine’s exports to Russia, the EU and the rest of the world had been following similar paths. Since then exports to Russia got…
Unlocking European Assistance for Moldova: with or without conditionality?
Political changes in Moldova send extremely positive echoes abroad. The change of the law on prosecutors' office, the corrections to the electoral code to return to the proportional system, and the impetus to the investigation of "the theft of the…
Z-winner takes it all: What will the future Parliament of Ukraine look like?
While the vote-counting in Ukraine continues, it is already clear that the president Volodymyr Zelenskyy has secured the power over legislative and, consequently, executive branches of the government. His political force, the Servant of the People…
Zelenskyy’s lustration mistake
The term lustration (люстрація in Ukrainian) has its origin in Roman purification rituals. It came into use in contemporary politics in 1989-91 with the end of Communism in Europe, with several central and east European states banning former Communist…
Geographical indications in Ukraine: prospects for exports and local development
Soon Ukraine might finally expand the list of products protected by the geographical indications (GIs). The AA/DCFTA includes more than three thousand GIs from the EU, [1] with only two Ukrainian GIs, wines Soniachna Dolyna and…
Abkhazia and the danger of "ossetianization"
When Georgian-Russian relations suffer a downturn — as they have over the crisis of the last two weeks - the people who live in Abkhazia and South Ossetia suffer the consequences. The Georgians of Abkhazia’s Gali region, who live a precarious life…
"Anti-oligarch spring" or temporary illusion in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine?
The eastern neighborhood of the EU is now undergoing major democratic transformations, the irreversibility of which will require verification over time. In Ukraine, Moldova and Georgia, anti-oligarchic rhetoric is the dominant element of political…
Georgia: An Unexpected Expected Crisis
In the evening of June 19th, I with two other experts took part in a talk-show on a Georgian TV channel. We all agreed that for the moment, the Georgian Dream (GD) party led by Bidzina Ivanishvili, a secretive plutocrat, looked all but impregnable…
Surrender of the oligarchic regime, re-launching of European integration in Moldova and Russia’s agenda
Even if the oligarchic regime in Moldova successfully monopolized political power during almost four years, it managed to oppose the remodeling of the political landscape by the coalition between ACUM and the Party of Socialists (PSRM) for only a week…
Moldova’s political crisis: Overcoming the geopolitical puzzle and the "captured state"
After almost three months from the validation of the results of the parliamentary elections (9…
Three dimensions of risk to visa liberalization in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine
The visa-free regime extended to Moldova in 2014 and to Ukraine and Georgia in 2017 has marked an important milestone in their relationships with the European Union. As a result, traveling to Europe has been eased and turned into an indispensable normality…
Perception vs. Reality? The EU and AA countries shared gender gaps
Gender gaps in the participation of Moldovan, Georgian and Ukrainian citizens in the political, social and economic realm are in most cases not substantially different than those in EU countries. Due at least in part to a Soviet legacy that prioritized…
Prospective FTA between Georgia and India: Another result of DCFTA?
Even though the EU-Georgia DCFTA has not yet had any substantial impact on trade and Georgia’s exports to the EU, it undoubtedly changed in a positive way Georgia’s prospective attractiveness as a trade and investment hub. After the entry into force…
Can a Free Trade Agreement with China be suitable for Moldova?
At the beginning of 2018, the Government of the Republic of Moldova started negotiations on a free trade agreement with China. According to the Moldovan authorities, this initiative will facilitate trade between the two countries, and also attract…
The Eastern Partnership at 10: The road to hell is paved with good intentions
The EU’s Eastern Partnership programme is often underestimated for what it has accomplished but overestimated for what it can achieve. Ten years since its formal launch on 7 May 2009, the EaP has brought sizeable benefits in terms of political association,…
The Russian factor in Moldova’s energy insecurity
A Moldova still struggles to overcome the various handicaps in its energy sector. The de-politicization of the regulatory agency, diversification of supply, and Russia’s monopolistic position, combine to maintain serious distortions in the energy sector…
Ukraine after the presidential elections
The election results. According to the results of the national exit poll that came…
Ukraine-Israel FTA: new trade opportunities
In January 2019, Ukraine and Israel signed a free trade agreement (FTA), concluding more than five years of negotiations. Unlike the DCFTA with the EU covering a broad range of issues in trade in goods, services, capital flows and legal harmonisation,…
Ukraine before the second round of the presidential elections
The voting day passed rather calmly, and observers have not reported major electoral fraud, stating that basic standards of free elections were safeguarded. Hopefully the same will apply to the second round on April 21. The final result of…
Georgia-China FTA: Results of the First Year
Please refer to the full version via the download link below since the op-ed contains graphs and tables. The free trade agreement between Georgia and China has been in force since January 2018. Although one year is a short period to make any…
Transnistria: DCFTA’s Implications for Foreign Trade
The Association Agreement between the Republic of Moldova and European Union has major political, social and especially economic implications (mainly its component of Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Area (DCFTA). The economic side of it resulted…
Presidential Elections in Ukraine: preserving the pro-EU course?
In less than two weeks, on March 31, the Ukrainians will head to the polling stations to cast their vote for the country's next President. However, the winner would be announced only at the beginning of May since it is highly unlikely that any of the…
Moldova: The struggles to build a post-electoral coalition
The Constitutional Court validated the mandates of the 101 new MPs (9…
Major trends of Ukraine’s exports in 2018 and outlook for 2019
The year 2018 was a distinct year for Ukraine’s goods exports featuring several “never-before” statistical facts. On the one hand, the value and share of exports to the European Union reached their historic maximum, backed by the stimuluses…
The State of the Donbass
The Donbass region of eastern Ukraine is among Europe’s most deadly modern battlefields on which more than 13,000 people have been killed since 2014. But it is also a propaganda war, where many shots are being fired not to kill somebody but send a…
Moldovan Elections: still between State Capture vs. Russian Influence
Less than 1.5 million citizens voted to renew the legislative body of Moldova. This is only 49% of total number of voters or about 200.000 fewer votes compared to 2014. Neither the populist policies introduced by the government in 2018, nor the consultative…
Towards a Wider Europe
Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine would like to find ways to reinforce their European integration ambitions, currently based on their Association Agreements and DCFTAs with the EU. Given the impasse over demands by these three states for 'membership perspectives',…
Ten forecasts for 2019: Reconfiguration of European agenda in Moldova and the rule of law crisis in EU
The year 2019 will be crucial for Moldova’s democracy and its European course and for the sustainability of the European project in general...
Year of disruptions in Moldova’s European integration: Top 3 accomplishments and failures in 2018
The government’s actions in 2018 offered again useful lessons to the EU, which the latter is to learn to prevent new episodes of distancing by Moldova from the European integration objective...